How does the exacerbation of the AZERBAIJANI-ARMENIAN conflict threaten us? Or the beginning of global transfer which always begins with a small, hardly known but vulnerable region.

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During the last two weeks, relations have sharply deteriorated between two countries of the former Soviet Union – Armenia and Azerbaijan. This conflict, which initially arose over the ownership of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh (the Caucasus region), has been smouldering for many years, at times, turning into short border skirmishes with the use of weapons. But nowadays another country of the Caucasus, Georgia, and possibly even other countries of the region, can also be involved in the conflict. The NLN correspondent took a short interview with a well-known political scientist, Mr. David Phurtskhvanidze, an expert on regional and global conflicts, and head of the Anticrisis Center of Security Problems, Georgia, with a request to comment on the situation. David said that the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan worsened on July 12 due to another local conflict of a regional scale, but that this time it could turn into a dangerous military confrontation. It is important to note that this time the struggle was not over the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh, which is designated as the territory of Azerbaijan on all political maps of the world but is actually under the control of Armenia. This is not only dangerous, but it is also very strange that military actions are taking place hundreds of kilometers from Karabakh, that is, outside the disputed territory, in the Tovuz region of Azerbaijan, on the border of the conflicting parties, and 40 kilometers from Georgia. It should be noted that the Tovuz region is the largest hub of all energy resources and strategic objects of Azerbaijan. And now it is clear why, in the skirmish between the parties, ideas are even being put forward to blow up either the Mingechaur reservoir dam, or the oil and gas pipelines running near Azerbaijan, and if this happens it will have catastrophic consequences threatening the lives of hundreds of thousands of people.

The conflict this time could easily develop into a regional war with the participation of at least Turkey, Russia, and Georgia. The reason for this development may be that Armenia, as a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which includes Russia, enjoys the right to a common defense with other CSTO member states, and Azerbaijan, as a “younger brother” of Turkey, clearly counts on NATO.help 

At the moment, active consultations are being held at various levels with the participation of all these countries.

In an exclusive interview to NLN, David Phurtskhvanidze provided a detailed analysis of the acute situation in the Caucasus N,  that will soon be published through the non-profit organization www.eslgeorgia.online, as well as public information resources, readily accessible to specialists in global and regional security, or any other interested parties.

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